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This Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report is a study of the effect by Supply and Demand on
Palos Verdes Real Estate transactions. The charts shown below are just 2 of the 19 different proprietary charts I have maintained over the last 20+ years. To gain access to these charts, just visit the Palos Verdes Real Estate Market chart service
The other constant theme over the last few months is this, if you are a selling a property here in the South Bay, you must understand that to get your home sold, you need aggressive marketing by your agent with strong internet search engine knowledge, and you need to price your home right. This is very, very difficult to do and there are more chances to price your home wrong than right.
It’s one reason why we see over 80% of the listings experience price drops. However, there are some really interesting observations.
As they say, “the only constant in life is change”… If you want to see full size versions and updated charts sign up for my proprietary Palos Verdes real estate charts (there are many more charts than what are shown in this Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report). That being said, the market is a living, breathing thing. And right now, as you look at the numbers, PRICE AND VOLUME are both making incredible gains for Palos Verdes Real Estate
Note the significant improvement in supply/demand dynamics as well as a steady increase in price appreciation beginning in mid to late 2011. It will be a significant event to observe the price trend in the chart below pierce above what was once support but is now a resistance line. The small chart to the right shows the changes in just a one month shift (5/2012-10/2012 to 5/2013-10/2013)
If you’re like me, you’re sick and tired of real estate agents just making up stuff when you ask them “…how’s the market?…” How about some REAL FACTS for a change? You will get that here. 
Palos Verdes real estate Market reports should be objective and based on fact not opinion; therefore, you should benefit from looking at the facts as depicted in trend charts. WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS.
Here’s a statement that might date me a bit, but like Sergeant Joe Friday used to say on the old TV show, Dragnet, “Just the facts Ma’am” So what ARE the facts…. what should you be studying hard? Look at the Palos Verdes Estates Pending Volume changes. Are there more sales (demand) or less? Look at the new listing volume (supply). More or less? So what really is driving a change in the unsold inventory index (this is the number of days of inventory remaining on the market at current rates of sales)? Is it because demand is changing more than supply or vica versa?
Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report
for November 2013
THE BIG STORY for the
Palos Verdes Homes Price Trajectory – LOW SUPPLY!
Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report for all of the Peninsula
OBSERVATIONS:
Palos Verdes Estates – Pending sale volume (demand) increased from the same time period last year. Listing volume increased too; however, we are no where near replenishing normal supply volume. When you subscribe to the chart service you will see what I’m talking about and what that means for the future of Palos Verdes Estates home values. At any rate, the net effect is an decrease of 13.62% in the unsold inventory. In other words, the number of days it’s taking for the market to absorb inventory through sale activity is almost 14% less now compared to the same time period last year. Thus proper pricing and expert marketing skills are still needed.
Palos Verdes Peninsula – The balances for the Peninsula as a whole are just about the same from what we observe in Palos Verdes Estates. While listing volume (supply) did increase, pending sale volume (demand) increased even more for a net effect of a nearly 5% decrease in unsold inventory
Greater South Bay – This is the 3rd month in a row where the pattern of continuing lower supply and increasing demand, has changed. The trends have weakened for the South Bay. Pending sale volume (demand) actually decreased by 6.62% while New Listing Volume (supply) increased by 3.09%. THIS IS AN ACCERLATION OVER THE SAME NUMBERS LAST MONTH. Prices are still appreciating and it will take many months of this type of dynamic before the moment of price appreciation changes. It’s my belief, at this time, that this change in the supply/demand trends, is merely the market taking a breath after many months of jet fueled propulsion.
| Time Period |
Palos Verdes Estates (Days to Sell Existing Supply) |
Listing Volume |
Pending Volume |
%Change Listing Volume (Supply) Same Time Period Last Year |
%Change Pending Volume (Demand) Same Time Period Last Year |
Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Last Period |
% Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Same Period Last Year |
| 5/1/2012-10/31/2012 |
216 |
89 |
74 |
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| 4/1/2013-9/30/2013 |
249 |
144 |
104 |
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| 5/1/2013-10/31/2013 |
215 |
122 |
102 |
27.05% |
37.84% |
-13.62% |
-0.55% |
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| Time Period |
Palos Verdes Peninsula (Days to Sell Existing Supply) |
Listing Volume |
Pending Volume |
%Change Listing Volume (Supply) Same Time Period Last Year |
%Change Pending Volume (Demand) Same Time Period Last Year |
Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Last Period |
% Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Same Period Last Year |
| 5/1/2012-10/31/2012 |
238 |
416 |
314 |
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|
| 4/1/2013-9/30/2013 |
236 |
491 |
374 |
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|
| 5/1/2013-10/31/2013 |
225 |
438 |
351 |
5.02% |
11.78% |
-4.95% |
-5.81% |
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| Time Period |
Greater South Bay Unsold Inventory (Days to Sell Existing Supply) |
Listing Volume |
Pending Volume |
%Change Listing Volume (Supply) Same Time Period Last Year |
%Change Pending Volume (Demand) Same Time Period Last Year |
Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Last Period |
% Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Same Period Last Year |
| 5/1/2012-10/31/2012 |
209 |
4583 |
3941 |
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|
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|
| 4/1/2013-9/30/2013 |
227 |
4807 |
3814 |
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| 5/1/2013-10/31/2013 |
231 |
4729 |
3680 |
3.09% |
-6.62% |
1.96% |
10.50% |
So what’s next? Will prices improve or not? There are folks much smarter than me that get predictions wrong frequently! So let’s be honest – any real estate broker or “expert” that says they can predict what the market is going to do, should immediately be dismissed. We don’t know … PERIOD. What I can tell you is that with over 30 years of experience, I’ve handled my clients’ best interests in all sorts of markets, from the Jimmy Carter 20% interest rate days, to the heady sellers’ markets of the late 80s to the ups and downs of just the last 8 years. And of course, you are welcome to read what my clients have about me YOU CAN TRUST ME to tell you the truth – good, bad or neutral.
You may or may not like what you hear from me and I will guarantee you that you will find plenty of Realtors that will tell you what you want to hear. But you WILL get the facts, the truth, undistorted so you can make decisions that ARE in YOUR best interests. You can be assured I will work hard to serve your interests before all others when you hire me. As to market strength and weakness – real estate is no different than any other commodity. It is fueled by the ebb and flow of supply and demand. Just keep it simple. Supply and demand – new listing volume (supply), pending sale volume (demand).
Focus on these numbers and that’s about the best we can do to understand market trends; where it is now, and maybe, just maybe, without predicting, get a “clue” as to what might happen in the short term. If you are reading this in a non-HTML format, go to this site to pull up the full South Bay Real Estate transaction report http://www.homeispalosverdes.com/palos-verdes-real-estate-market-report/ Please visit my website then click the link entitled “Trend charts for the South Bay & Palos Verdes“. It’s located in the “Seller and Buyer Tips” drop down menu and then the “Palos Verdes Homes Market Trends”. You won’t find this information anywhere else and you will learn the FACTS – not sales hype! I encourage you to also use my new “MLS Market Snapshot” (the green link near the top of the page) which, once you enter your address, will provide you supply/demand ratios for your property. Keep in mind, every market has its ups and downs, every market “breathes” and you need to stay tuned and MAKE SURE TO SUBSCRIBE TO MY TREND CHART SERVICE TO MONITOR
Don’t forget to download your own real estate app for your smartphone! smartphone-app-to-search-for-real-estate This service is WAY better than any other mobile service. Try it out!
IF YOU ARE SELLING A HOME? Make sure to check in here monthly to view the changes in the Palos Verdes real estate market report. You’ve got to price your home at a level (use the free “What’s My House Worth” link below) that makes Buyers perceive they are being compensated for the perceived risk of buying a home that may drop somewhat in value in the near term. Remember, go to http://www.homeispalosverdes.com to gain access to these charts so that you can monitor over time.
Make sure to check in to this website again next month to monitor the changes, and see how the “news” affects the market. Regardless of what the media portrays, what are the facts? While at my site, take advantage of clicking the other links such as my Free Reports, or Free Search of homes for sale and sold, or benefit from your PERSONALIZED “Listing Informer” service or better yet, the new “MLS Market Snapshot” service whereby you can become informed of all the listings & SALES around your own property! I have a new feature on my website for you to view the “distressed” properties (Palos Verdes Foreclosures & California Foreclosures); properties which have notices of default or notices of trustee sale or actual bank owned homes. Unlike other sites that “tease” you with descriptions; I provide you the actual addresses and picture. If any these properties interest you, call or email me and let’s discuss strategy for placing an offer.
You will be able to play a brief video tutorial on how to benefit from this section of my website Again, and not to belabor the point important as it is, another high tech feature just added is my “MLS Market Snapshot” personal service. Imagine having an interactive mapping program showing your home and then the sales and listings around it; a program that will show you the changes in prices over time, the differential between list and sale price and more including the ability to see details and pictures of the competitive listings and sale data and changes in the supply/demand ratios! It’s FANTASTIC! Look for the MLS Market Snapshot in the 4 Power Tools drop down menu. As part of my customer service, you now have THREE WAYS to “SEARCH LIKE AN AGENT” using my website. Go to http://www.homeispalosverdes.com and use the 4 Power Tools section to get to this. Use the one best for your needs. A free customer service I offer clients is access to the proprietary Altos Research Charts. You may view these for free (I pay a hefty subscription fee for these charts and I’m happy to share with you at no cost and of course with the home that will demonstrate by commitment to serving your interests). Go to my site and then use the drop down menu under the Seller and Buyer Tips.
Also, one of the latest innovations in marketing I’m bringing to the benefit of my selling clients is the Mobile ID service that provides Buyers information and pictures as they drive by your home (captures more buyers quickly to get your home sold faster and at a higher net price through more competition) AND specialized SEO Marketing Tactics each of which create more buyer interest in the property you’re selling so that it sells not only faster but for a higher net price to you. If you are reading this and the links are active, just go to my website www.homeispalosverdes.com and scroll down to the bottom under Articles and Links and click the Supply Demand Report you see in the list.
TO USE THE PROPRIETARY LIFESTYLE PALOS VERDES AND SOUTH BAY HOMES SEARCH MAP ENGINE, GO TO THE ORIGINAL CONTENT OF THIS ARTICLE HERE:
http://www.homeispalosverdes.com/palos-verdes-real-estate-market-report/
+George Fotion
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ORIGINAL CONTENT: George Fotion, HomeIsPalosVerdes.com
