Another indication of the improving real estate market is what’s happening with Palos Verdes foreclosures and “shadow inventory” not only in and around the Palos Verdes area, but nationally.
From the peak of foreclosure activity in 2010, CoreLogic (one of the nation’s largest independent real estate research firms) reported that overall shadow inventory is down 28%. They estimate this number from the current stock of properties that are seriously delinquent, in foreclosure or that are REO (real estate owned by banks) and which are not listed on Multiple Listing Services. For the Palos Verdes foreclosures market, as of the moment, I count only 2 properties for sale that are either offered as “short sales”, are in pre-foreclosure, or are bank owned.
If you would like to have real time reporting on what is available in this rapidly shrinking market, you are welcome to visit my Palos Verdes foreclosures search site or the distressed property site focusing on those Palos Verdes foreclosures scheduled for auction Now this picture may scare you a bit given on 2 properties for sale now, but trust me on this, if you had me create a report for you showing the Palos Verdes foreclosures picture two years ago, you would be seeing about double the amount of properties
Palos Verdes Foreclosures
How do you get information on these Palos Verdes foreclosures? Are there opportunities here to get a good deal? Use the contact pop up screen to schedule an appointment and we can talk about. Why aren’t Palos Verdes foreclosures the “deal” they used to be? What is the main policy change banks have implemented that prevent buyers from getting the “great deals”? How long does it take, really, once a property goes into foreclosure for it to become available for your offer? Are there strategies to short circuit the process so you get a head’s up on these properties? Lastly, let me make this disclosure, this is an incredibly difficult market to take advantage of. Palos Verdes foreclosures “sounds like” a great deal for buyers, but there are serious pitfalls. So use the contact pop up screen on the bottom right of your screen and let’s set an appointment to talk about it. This may or may not be a category of property best for your real estate goals. Let’s find out.
The Portuguese Bend community is one of the most beautiful, and in my opinion the most coveted areas in which to live anywhere between Santa Barbara and San Diego. This page is divided into a couple of sections. If you’re new to Portuguese Bend, the this first section reviews the history and a speaks toward the ambiance of the area. Then at the bottom of this page you can actually search for homes for sale and review closed sales that have occurred in the community. Don’t be surprised if there isn’t much for sale … When you live here, you really don’t ever want to move away!
Portuguese Bend
The Portuguese Bend region is the largest area of natural vegetation remaining on the Palos Verdes Peninsula, in Los Angeles County, California. Though once slated for development (and in fact the projected route of Crenshaw Boulevard through the area still shows on many maps), some Portuguese Bend areas are geologically unstable and as such are unsuitable for building. However other parts of Portuguese Bend have been deemed geologically stable and in fact new construction is occurring. The geologic profile of the area however is what is an enormous “silver lining” to the stigmatized dark cloud in that it makes Portuguese Bend the beautiful and tranquil community that it is. Portuguese Bend homes reside within the only gated community in Rancho Palos Verdes.
The geographical location and geological history of the peninsula make the remaining habitat extremely valuable for ecological and other scientific reasons. The peninsula, which was an island with the Palos Verdes Hills in recent geological time, has close floral and faunal similarities to the Channel Islands. This feature makes the Portuguese Bend Landslide area a natural research laboratory for the study of island biogeography and evolutionary ecology. Surrounding the Portuguese Bend homes area is the Portuguese Bend Reserve which is filled with hiking trails and is nearly 400 acres in size.
The Portuguese Bend Reserve consists of rolling hills, five distinct steep canyons and rock outcrops, with coastal sage scrub habitat, a community of intensely fragrant and drought resistant shrubs and flowering plants. Located below and to the east of Del Cerro Park are the areas known as Lemonadeberry Parcel, Eagle’s Nest, the Badlands, and the active landslide and dirt extension of Crenshaw Boulevard. Unique features include a pillow lava outcrop called Ailor Cliff after Conservancy founder Bill Ailor.
The vegetation found in the area is coastal sage scrub. This plant community supports a surprising number and variety of species. There are at least three races of birds resident on the peninsula that are found nowhere else except the Channel Islands. These are the insular forms of the Orange-crowned Warbler, Pacific-slope Flycatcher, and Allen’s Hummingbird. The same phenomena has been documented for plant species. A species of live-forever, Dudleya virens, which is endemic to the Channel Islands and the Palos Verdes Peninsula, is found near Point Vicente Light a Lighthouse built in 1926.
The area also serves as habitat to many migrating birds moving through the region in fall and spring. The Peninsula is a headland that juts into the Pacific Ocean several miles further than the surrounding coastline. Migrating terrestrial and shore birds, flying over the open ocean on their north-south migration along the Pacific Flyway, spot this headland and stop to rest and feed. Many of these birds will stay and spend the winter in the area. Thus, the geographic position makes this habitat much more important than might otherwise be expected.
Portuguese Bend History
Native Americans: The peninsula was the homeland of the Tongva-Gabrieliño Native Americans people for thousands of years. In other areas of the Los Angeles Basin archeological sites date back 8,000 years. Their first contact with Europeans in 1542 with João Cabrilho (Juan Cabrillo), the Portuguese explorer who also was the first to write of them. Chowigna and Suangna were two Tongva settlements of many in the peninsula area, which was also a departure point for their rancherias on the Channel Islands. Legend has it that the Native Americans blessed the land of Palos Verdes, making it the most beautiful place on Earth.
Spanish and Mexican era: In 1846 Jose Dolores Sepulveda and José Loreto received a Mexican land grant from Alta Governor Pío Pico for a parcel from the huge original 1784 Spanish land grant Rancho San Pedro of Manuel Dominguez.[6] It was named Rancho de los Palos Verdes, or “ranch of the green sticks”, which was used primarily as a cattle ranch.
American era: By 1882 ownership of the land had passed from the Sepulveda through various mortgage holders to Jotham Bixby of Rancho Los Cerritos, who leased the land to Japanese farmers. Early in the 20th century most of Bixby’s land was sold to a consortium of New York investors who created The Palos Verdes Project and began marketing land on the peninsula for small horse ranches and residential communities. Portuguese Bend homes enjoy a price appreciation premium above and beyond similar Palos Verdes homes.
The whaling era: The name Portuguese Bend comes from the whaling activities of Portuguese whalemen from the Azores. An Azorean shore whaling captain named José Machado brought shore whaling to this bend in the coastline north of San Pedro Bay after the closure of the San Pedro Bay whaling station on Deadman’s Island in or about 1862. He brought with him a crew of Azorean whalemen. In 1864, Captain Clark moved his operations to San Simeon Bay. In 1869, the station was operated by the John Brown Whaling Company (Los Angeles Star, March 13, 1869). In 1874, Captain Frank Anderson (né Anasio) brought a crew from Port Harford in San Luis Obispo County. His operation at Portuguese Bend lasted from 1874 to 1877. During three winters (December–April) he obtained 2,166 barrels of oil from trying out the blubber flensed from gray whales he had caught on their annual migration along the California coast. He abandoned the station thereafter, establishing another further north at Pigeon Point. An 1888 U.S. Fish Commission Report stated that whales had been caught from Portuguese Bend as late as 1884, suggesting another party utilized the area for whaling up until that date.
The Vanderlip era: Frank A. Vanderlip, Sr. (November 17, 1864 – June 30, 1937) was known as the “Father of Palos Verdes”. He purchased the 16,000 acre Rancho de los Palos Verdes from Jotham Bixby in 1913. In 1916, he built the Vanderlip estates near the Portuguese Bend area of Palos Verdes, California. His descendants still live in the mansion and on other parts of the property. His daughter-in-law Elin Vanderlip maintained residence at the estate until her death in 2009 and her ashes are spread on the grounds. The Vanderlips championed many of the landmarks in Rancho Palos Verdes, notably Wayfarers_Chapel (The church was designed by Lloyd Wright (son of Frank Lloyd Wright) in the late 1940s and was built between 1949 and 1951.), Marineland of the Pacific, Portuguese Bend Riding Club (featured in the movie Chinatown), Marymount College, Palos Verdes and Chadwick School. In 1949 Frank Vanderlip Jr. built the Portuguese Bend Beach Club (a gated beach house community The houses were built on lots leased for 25 years and were the typical 1940s weekend places where people went to have a quiet time at the beach. Back then there was a clubhouse, restaurant, paddle tennis courts, 50 foot swimming pool, a sandy beach, and a 485 foot long pier where boats could tie up.
Portuguese Bend homes for sale and Portuguese Bend home sales
follow this link back to the original content for this post by clicking the image here:
Palos Verdes Estates Homes in the lower price ranges for the area obviously tend to be the smaller homes in the area
At the same time even though you may be looking for the homes in the lowest price ranges for Palos Verdes Estates, you still want to get the most home for the money. Sometimes that might mean finding a Palos Verdes Estates homes that is less ideally located relative to other Palos Verdes Estates homes; for example a location on Palos Verdes Drive West. Or that might mean considering Palos Verdes Estates homes with inferior condition relative to other homes.
It’s always a trade-off isn’t it? In fact, even when I’m working with my clients shopping Palos Verdes Estates homes in the highest price ranges, there is no perfect home.
The market is behaving differently for smaller Palos Verdes Estates Homes compared to larger Palos Verdes Estates homes, but the one common factor in both categories is that supply/demand changes fuel the changes. As is a common theme in most of my analyses, real estate being a commodity like any other has price determined by the dynamics of supply and demand.
click the chart to sign up for my proprietary Palos Verdes Estates market charts
Palos Verdes Estates Homes Supply Picture
Clearly the huge and glaring factor effecting prices for Palos Verdes Estates homes is the abysmal lack of supply. We are seeing levels of new listing volume not seen in over 20 years Getting right to the point here per the title of this blog post, what IS going on with Palos Verdes Estates homes in the affordable price ranges (as defined by homes under 2100sqft)
Prices for this category of home has gone up over 15% in the last year. The moral of the story here is that the market is always changing and it looks like from the “tone” of the supply/demand changes, that we’re entering another price appreciation cycle. What prices will be a year from now is a question I will leave for those with a better crystal ball than me.
But, if I were a betting person, I would say that the odds are much greater that prices will be higher than they are now. But how have the more expensive Palos Verdes homes performed? How have prices changed for them relative to the lower priced Palos Verdes homes? If you would like to see the two trend lines together in one chart showing the price changes of both category of homes over the last 10 years; send me an email or give me a call. To search for Palos Verdes Estates homes, feel welcome to use this free search tool
What’s been going on with Palos Verdes Home Prices since 1993?
This won’t be a long blog post, but I wante to share some information quickly in response to a question I received from a client the other day asking if Palos Verdes home prices were going up again or just staying flat.
As is often the case, the Palos Verdes Home prices question can best be answered by a picture.
Since the peak of the market in about the 4th quarter of 2006, we see that Palos Verdes home prices dropped about 25% or so. Compared to some other areas of the country and California (think Riverside, San Bernardino, even other parts of Los Angeles) Palos Verdes homes did VERY, VERY well during this down turn.
Fueled by rising demand and dwindling supply of Palos Verdes homes, Palos Verdes home prices in the last year have gone up nearly 8%.
You can visit other sections of my website to get more information on Palos Verdes homes for sale and seek tools to help you find out what your home is worth. It’s pretty easy on my site. For example to get other trend data, you can go to either of these two sites:
One of the favorite sections of my site that clients are using now, is the map based real time search tool that shows the last 6 months of Palos Verdes home sales. In other words, whenever you visit this particular site, it will always show you the closed sales in the last 6 months.
Meanwhile, if you know of anyone thinking of selling; do me a favor, introduce them to me. The market is GROSSLY undersupplied and their home may be worth a lot more than they thought!
This Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report is a study of the effect by Supply and Demand on Palos Verdes Real Estate transactions.
Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report Supply Demand
South Bay Real Estate Transactions
Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report Conclusions for the month of …
For March 1, 2013
Each month in this Palos Verdes Real Estate market report, we observe changes, some for the better, some not. While this report is published monthly, I often will blog about real estate trends here on the Palos Verdes Peninsula and throughout the South Bay on the Palos Verdes Real Estate blog; please feel welcome to subscribe and/or read the posts.
The constant theme over the last few months … some indicators are pointing to positive changes and others negative changes. The other constant theme over the last few months is this, if you are a selling a property here in the South Bay, you must understand that to get your home sold, you need aggressive marketing by your agent with strong internet search engine knowledge, and you need to price your home right. This is very, very difficult to do and there are more chances to price your home wrong than right. It’s one reason why we see over 80% of the listings experience price drops.
The Palos Verdes real estate market report shows that we aren’t out of the woods yet; not by any means. However, there are some really interesting positive signs as evidenced by the tremendous drops in supply and increases in demand. If you want to see full size versions and updated charts sign up for my proprietary Palos Verdes real estate charts (there are many more charts than what are shown in this Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report)
Note the breakdown of price support (weakness) but in the next couple of charts, note the significant improvement in supply/demand dynamics
THE BIG STORY for the
Palos Verdes real estate market report
SUPPLY IS WAY DOWN | DEMAND IS WAY UP!
If you’re like me, you’re sick and tired of real estate agents just making up stuff when you ask them “…how’s the market?…”
How about some REAL FACTS for a change? You will get that here.
Palos Verdes real estateMarket reports should be objective and based on fact not opinion; therefore, you should benefit from looking at the facts as depicted in trend charts. WHAT ARE THE NUMBERS. Here’s a statement that might date me a bit, but like Sergeant Joe Friday used to say on the old TV show, Dragnet, “Just the facts Ma’am”
So what ARE the facts…. what should you be studying hard? Look at the Palos Verdes Estates Pending Volume changes. Are there more sales (demand) or less? Look at the new listing volume (supply). More or less?
So what really is driving a change in the unsold inventory index (this is the number of days of inventory remaining on the market at current rates of sales)? Is it because demand is changing more than supply or vica versa?
Palos Verdes Real Estate Market Report for all of the Peninsula
Look what has happened for example for … Supplies are up about 5.5% and demand up nearly 32%. For Palos Verdes Estates homes, supply is down 20%. And for the South Bay as a whole, supplies are down almost 16% while demand is up almost 22%! That’s incredible! What’s that tell you about the future potential for Palos Verdes homes and prices? Does that increase your confidence that prices will, at worst, be flat for a while if not even higher soon? It’s all about supply and demand folks; it’s not rocket science.
Let me know if you have questions about interpreting the data – I am here to help.
Time Period
Palos Verdes Estates (Days to Sell Existing Supply)
Listing Volume
Pending Volume
%Change Listing Volume (Supply) Same Time Period Last Year
%Change Pending Volume (Demand) Same Time Period Last Year
Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Last Period
% Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Same Period Last Year
9/1/2011-2/29/2012
228
91
72
8/1/2012-1/31/2013
206
79
69
9/1/2012-2/28/2013
226
89
71
-2.25%
-1.39%
9.48%
-0.82%
Time Period
Palos Verdes Peninsula (Days to Sell Existing Supply)
Listing Volume
Pending Volume
%Change Listing Volume (Supply) Same Time Period Last Year
%Change Pending Volume (Demand) Same Time Period Last Year
Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Last Period
% Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Same Period Last Year
9/1/2011-2/29/2012
247
310
226
8/1/2012-1/31/2013
199
344
311
9/1/2012-2/28/2013
205
353
310
12.18%
37.17%
2.95%
-16.98%
Time Period
Greater South Bay Unsold Inventory (Days to Sell Existing Supply)
Listing Volume
Pending Volume
%Change Listing Volume (Supply) Same Time Period Last Year
%Change Pending Volume (Demand) Same Time Period Last Year
Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Last Period
% Change in Unsold Inventory Index from Same Period Last Year
9/1/2011-2/29/2012
259
4302
2995
8/1/2012-1/31/2013
184
3748
3660
9/1/2012-2/28/2013
185
3649
3541
-17.90%
18.23%
0.63%
-28.26%
So what’s next? Will prices improve or not? There are folks much smarter than me that get predictions wrong frequently! So let’s be honest – any real estate broker or “expert” that says they can predict what the market is going to do, should immediately be dismissed. We don’t know … PERIOD. What I can tell you is that with over 30 years of experience, I’ve handled my clients’ best interests in all sorts of markets, from the Jimmy Carter 20% interest rate days, to the heady sellers’ markets of the late 80s to the ups and downs of just the last 8 years. And of course, you are welcome to read what my clients have about me
YOU CAN TRUST ME to tell you the truth – good, bad or neutral. You may or may not like what you hear from me and I will guarantee you that you will find plenty of Realtors that will tell you what you want to hear. But you WILL get the facts, the truth, undistorted so you can make decisions that ARE in YOUR best interests. You can be assured I will work hard to serve your interests before all others when you hire me.
As to market strength and weakness – real estate is no different than any other commodity. It is fueled by the ebb and flow of supply and demand. Just keep it simple. Supply and demand – new listing volume (supply), pending sale volume (demand). Focus on these numbers and that’s about the best we can do to understand market trends; where it is now, and maybe, just maybe, without predicting, get a “clue” as to what might happen in the short term. If you are reading this in a non-HTML format, go to this site to pull up the full South Bay Real Estate transaction report http://www.homeispalosverdes.com/palos-verdes-real-estate-market-report/
Please visit my website then click the link entitled “Trend charts for the South Bay & Palos Verdes“. It’s located in the “Seller and Buyer Tips” drop down menu and then the “Palos Verdes Homes Market Trends”. You won’t find this information anywhere else and you will learn the FACTS – not sales hype! I encourage you to also use my new “MLS Market Snapshot” (the green link near the top of the page) which, once you enter your address, will provide you supply/demand ratios for your property.
IF YOU ARE SELLING A HOME? Make sure to check in here monthly to view the changes in the Palos Verdes real estate market report. You’ve got to price your home at a level (use the free “What’s My House Worth” link below) that makes Buyers perceive they are being compensated for the perceived risk of buying a home that may drop somewhat in value in the near term. Remember, go to http://www.homeispalosverdes.com to gain access to these charts so that you can monitor over time.
Make sure to check in to this website again next month to monitor the changes, and see how the “news” affects the market. Regardless of what the media portrays, what are the facts? While at my site, take advantage of clicking the other links such as my Free Reports, or Free Search of homes for sale and sold, or benefit from your PERSONALIZED “Listing Informer” service or better yet, the new “MLS Market Snapshot” service whereby you can become informed of all the listings & SALES around your own property!
I have a new feature on my website for you to view the “distressed” properties (Palos Verdes Foreclosures & California Foreclosures); properties which have notices of default or notices of trustee sale or actual bank owned homes. Unlike other sites that “tease” you with descriptions; I provide you the actual addresses and picture. If any these properties interest you, call or email me and let’s discuss strategy for placing an offer. You will be able to play a brief video tutorial on how to benefit from this section of my website
Again, and not to belabor the point important as it is, another high tech feature just added is my “MLS Market Snapshot” personal service. Imagine having an interactive mapping program showing your home and then the sales and listings around it; a program that will show you the changes in prices over time, the differential between list and sale price and more including the ability to see details and pictures of the competitive listings and sale data and changes in the supply/demand ratios! It’s FANTASTIC! Look for the MLS Market Snapshot in the 4 Power Tools drop down menu.
As part of my customer service, you now have THREE WAYS to “SEARCH LIKE AN AGENT” using my website. Go to http://www.homeispalosverdes.com and use the 4 Power Tools section to get to this. Use the one best for your needs.
A free customer service I offer clients is access to the proprietary Altos Research Charts. You may view these for free (I pay a hefty subscription fee for these charts and I’m happy to share with you at no cost and of course with the home that will demonstrate by commitment to serving your interests). Go to my site and then use the drop down menu under the Seller and Buyer Tips.
Also, one of the latest innovations in marketing I’m bringing to the benefit of my selling clients is the Mobile ID service that provides Buyers information and pictures as they drive by your home (captures more buyers quickly to get your home sold faster and at a higher net price through more competition) AND specialized SEO Marketing Tactics each of which create more buyer interest in the property you’re selling so that it sells not only faster but for a higher net price to you. If you are reading this and the links are active, just go to my website www.homeispalosverdes.com and scroll down to the bottom under Articles and Links and click the Supply Demand Report you see in the list.
Another indication of the improving real estate market is what’s happening with Palos Verdes foreclosures and “shadow inventory” not only in and around the Palos Verdes area, but nationally.
